Modelling and forecasting of potato sales prices in Ukraine

Purpose. Under the background of climate change and other crises, world food system is becoming increasingly vulnerable to price fluctuations. This highlights need consider better manage risks associated with volatility in accordance principles a market economy simultaneously protecting most groups population. Responding these challenges, this study we aim determine main parameters time series potato sales prices agricultural enterprises Ukraine, build an appropriate model, form short-term (one-year) forecast.
 Methodology / approach. We used research data from State Statistics Service Ukraine on average monthly potatoes December 2012 July 2021 (104 observations) adjusted for index crop products sold by month (with base period). Decomposition was characteristics series; exponential smoothing methods (Holt-Winters Space Framework – ETS) autoregressive-moving were find model that fits actual best has high prognostic quality. applied Rstudio forecast package series. 
 Results. The characterized seasonality (mainly related seasonal production) lowest November, highest June; although, periods growth identified during year: January April. ARMA (2, 2) (1,0)12 non-zero mean found be forecasting prices. (1,0)12, compared state-space additive errors ETS (A), observed provides more accurate lower errors). Forecast made shows sale November (months price) will range 2154.76 UAH/t 7414.57 UAH/t, June 2022 3016.72 14051.63 (prices 2021) probability 95%. forecast’s absolute percentage error 14.87%.
 Originality scientific novelty. deepens methodological basis modelling forecasting, thus contributing economics science development. obtained results confirm previous findings quality forecasts autoregressive models (for univariate series) smoothing. Additionally, reveals advantages state space framework (ETS) Holt-Winters case seasonality: although overlaps (train) data, it terms information criteria test data).
 Practical value implications. can serve as decision-making production producers, efficient use resources population, effective measures support industrial growing, implement social programs security policy government.